The Bayesian Conspiracy

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A short story by Prerat. Original can be found here. Merry Xmas!

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Hello and happy holiday season to you all! Eneasz is back and we’re here to say hi and give a shoutout to Skyler’s awesome annual LessWrong survey and Lighthaven’s fundraising event. See the links below for more details.

LINKS

• The LessWrong survey will remain open from now until at least January 7th, 2026.
• Lighthaven is once again seeking support. If you’re inclined to help, check out all of the details here.
• Related, our interview with Oliver from last year.

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? (also merch)
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.

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Join me as I sit down with Alex and David, both previous guests on the show and both cofounders of the Guild of the Rose. Together, we go over the core – the heart – of what we consider to be the Rationalist tradition. The 12 Virtues are an awesome distillation of what the rest of the sequences build on.

Be sure to check out the Guild of the Rose. If our constantly pitching it to you hasn’t been enough to persuade you to check it out, hopefully hearing two more of the founders discuss Rationality in general and giving their own pitches for the Guild will tip the scales.

LINKS

• The Twelve Virtues
  • Abridged Version
• Alex and David have been on more than a couple of times, but I’ll limit myself to one episode from each of them
  • 189 – AI Bloomer David Youssef
  • 192 – Absurdism and the Meaning of Life, with Alex
  • And the episode with both of them, the original announcement for the Guild
• Also, Alex’s dating profile! In all sincerity, I’d date him if I was a woman.

00:00:05 – Introduction and The 12 Virtues
01:41:50 – Guild of the Rose

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? (also merch)
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.

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Matt Freeman has been cohosting several media analysis podcasts for over a decade. He and his cohost Scott have been doing weekly episodes of the Doofcast every Friday and they cover movies, books, and TV shows. Matt and Scott’s analysis podcasts have made me love stories even more and have equipped me with tools to enhance my ability to think more deeply about the stories I consume and enjoy them even more.

My hope is that this meta-conversation will encourage anyone who hasn’t listened to the Doofcast or anything else Doof! Media has put out to give it a shot and see what you’ve been missing out on. Unfortunately, we were unable to coordinate a time for Matt’s cohost Scott to join us so hopefully I did an ok job making this entertaining and fun with only one expert guest.

Shoutout to Skyler Crossman, the Less Wrong community organizer extraordinaire!

LINKS

• Doof! Media, the home of Matt’s other podcasts!
• The Magnus Archives
• Bob Ross on AI Slop
• East Coast Mega Meetup

00:00:05 – Diving into stories
01:47:42 – Interlude with Eneasz about the East Coast Mega Meetup!
01:52:31 – Guild of the Rose

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? (also merch)
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.

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Booker is a long-time attendee and one of the coordinators of the Denver area Less Wrong community. Community engagement isn’t just a background task for him – he’s taken real steps to get involved with and improve his community and you can too! He’s here to tell us about the things he’s done and give some guidance on how you all can get involved and help make your community more like the place you’d want to live.

Colorado Reagan Club

An article he wrote making the case why you should join

An article about Vacancy Committees

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While Eneasz is busy at InkHaven, Steven sits down with Matt Freeman to talk about not-AI stuff! We had (in my opinion) a great conversation about stoic philosophy, the traps of getting too entrenched in any philosophical framework, and some of the ingredients of a happy life.

LINKS

• It’s Okay to Feel Bad for a Bit
• Doof! Media, the home of Matt’s other podcasts!
• Flanagan’s Wake

00:00:05 – Matt Freeman
01:55:23 – Guild of the Rose

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? (also merch)
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.