The Bayesian Conspiracy

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We discuss Zvi’s How to Bounded Distrust with Wesley Fenza.

Wes is from The Mind Killer!

Other links:
Bounded Distrust
On Bounded Distrust
The Media Very Rarely Lies + followup + 2nd followup
People Will Sometimes Just Lie About You
Matt Yglesia on Why You Can’t Trust The Media
Discovery in lawsuit case shows FOX News hosts didn’t believe their own narrative
NYT leadership decided tech will be covered negatively
Conflict Theory of Bounded Distrust
Eneasz did the dumb homework:
MIT article on how the vaccine was delayed by a week to just after the election
Nate Silver said it deserves looking into
Zvi says of Topol “there was the time he was instrumental in sabotaging approval of the Covid vaccines so that it would happen after the November election.”

00:01 – How To Bounded Distrust
01:10:51 – Guild of the Rose Update
01:12:31 – Thank the Patron

We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
Our Patreon page–your support is most rational, and totally effective. (also merch)

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In Defense of Chatbot Romance

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We have some follow-up questions to Brian, including how to weigh utils, how moral claims to an area can be adjudicated, crime, use of home ownership as an investment as government policy, eviction law, and more!

For the full episode, subscribe at Patreon

CA YIMBY main page and support pages here

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We discuss the YIMBY movement in California, and how Brian Hanlon & co. got real legislative change happening.

Primary Links
CA YIMBY
Contact Brian – Brian@CAYIMBY.org
Great article on SB827 including interview with Brian
The Welcoming Neighbor Network

Other Links
George Carlin on NIMBY
CARLA is now CalHDF
SF BARF
Black-Eyes put on a hell of a punk show… and they just reunited to put on three shows this coming April
TBC episode on Getting Lucky
TBC episode on Georgist Land Value Taxes
A COVIDy blog post on getting Paxlovid in the US
Clearer Thinking on Importance Hacking

00:01 – CA YIMBY
01:01:16 – Possible to Slow AI via Legislation?
01:08:57 – Guild of the Rose Update
01:09:49 – LW posts
01:43:09 – Thank the Patron

We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
Our Patreon page–your support is most rational, and totally effective. (also merch)

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Worried about AGI running amok in the near future? John Wentworth thinks we can align AI. In 10-15 years. With greater than 50/50 probability. And he has a plan!

We discuss The Plan, its merits, and how it has progressed over the past year.

Primary Sources:
The Plan
The Plan – 2022 Update

Also discussed:
The Basic Foundations for Agent Models sequence
The Telephone Theorem
The “Minimal Latents” Approach to Natural Abstractions

Help With The Plan, Get The Skills, Save The World:
Read The Embedded Agency Sequence
Join SERI MATS! (see also SERI MATS tag on LessWrong)
Apply for funding from The Long-Term Future Fund

56:05 – Guild of the Rose Update
57:36 – Feedback
58:20 – LW posts
1:19:09 – Thank the Patron

We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
Our Patreon page–your support is most rational, and totally effective. (also merch)

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

We discuss Out To Get You by Zvi. A lot of clouds get yelled at.

2:55 – Main Topic: Getting Got
1:08:48 – LW posts
1:18:55 – Thank the Patron

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?