The Bayesian Conspiracy

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Four Major AI Advancements In One Week!

New Scaling Laws for Large Language Models – essentially everyone has been training large language models with a deeply suboptimal use of compute

Googles Pathways Language Model explains jokes, and it can distinguish cause and effect and understand counterfactuals

DALL-E 2 makes amazing art on demand

Socratic Modeling system

1:39:51  LW posts

Also mentioned:

Overcoming Bias: AI Language Progress

What an actually pessimistic containment strategy looks like

Github Copilot

Anthropic AI

The Mind Killer

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We address theoretical cryonics concerns, and discuss Guzey’s Theses On Sleep

3:15  Cryonics Concerns
49:21  Theses On Sleep
1:23:01  LW posts
1:50:16  Thank the Patron

Also mentioned:

LW Cryonics Probability Estimates guide

Our episode with Rudy Hoffman

Lifespan podcast

Limitless w Chris Hemsworth

Counter-theses on Sleep

Scott Alexander’s Sleep Is The Mate Of Death

Cryonics Insitute FAQ and info re transportation services

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The Conspirators regroup to discuss if/how their views on monarchy have changed.

The full episode is available for our Patrons

Mentioned:

List of Current States With Monarchs

CGP Gray’s Rules for Rulers (Keys of Power)

Tears For Fears – Everybody Wants To Rule The World (warning – crappy 80s song)

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We speak with Cornelius about this idea that Monachy is good because it can save us from populist fascism.

1:44:50 LW posts
2:14:45 Thank the Patron

Cornelius blogs at EsotericMusings.substack.com

Also mentioned:

Gray Mirror Substack

Democracy: The God that Failed by Hans-Hermann Hoppe

Jace’s counterargument is basically a link to Scott Alexander’s Anti-Reactionary FAQ

We did a “Reactions to this episode” mini-episode the following week

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We catch up on stuff and hit a few wandering targets.

0:01 Jace on Lithium
21:10 Feedback
26:05 LW posts
50:06 Nuclear Ukraine
59:43 Nuclear Us
1:05:30 Steven Tries To Get Us Cancelled

Lithium in drinking water linked with lower suicide rates

The Mind Killer – Vladimir Putin’s Small Dick Energy

Warcasting – ACX and Zvi

Razom Ukraine delivers medical supplies

Robert Wiblin leaving London

Potasium Iodide tablets

Eneasz Interviews Ada Palmer

Keep Your Identity Small

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We discuss A Chemical Hunger – the paper presenting the hypothesis that the modern obesity epidemic is due to enviromental contamination causing widespread lithium poisoning.

EDIT – MAJOR UPDATE – It’s probably not lithium!

Links to become a patron of this group, or contact them

BMI Calculator

Less Wrong Posts – 5:53
Main Topic – 15:09
Thank the Patron – 1:50:23

[PART I – MYSTERIES]
[PART II – CURRENT THEORIES OF OBESITY ARE INADEQUATE]
[PART III – ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINANTS]
[PART IV – CRITERIA]
[PART V – LIVESTOCK ANTIBIOTICS]
[PART VI – PFAS]
[PART VII – LITHIUM]
[PART VIII – PARADOXICAL REACTIONS]
[INTERLUDE H – WELL WELL WELL]
[PART IX – ANOREXIA IN ANIMALS]
[PART X – WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT]

Eneasz’s tldr notes

Extracting lithium from seawater

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